Three interesting and thought-provoking articles on the current military conflict in Ukraine.

Greg Krasovsky

June 20, 2022

 
Three interesting and thought-provoking articles on the current military conflict in Ukraine:

1. "What the Fall of Empires Tells Us About the Ukraine War -
Russia’s war can only be understood as a bloody post-imperial conflict."
 
    Anatol Lieven, Foreign Policy, June 20, 2022

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/20/russia-ukraine-war-putin-empire-imperialism-colonialism-conquest-collapse/

2. "Trump Said We Should "Get Along with Russia". He's Right"
 
    Mike Whitney, The Unz Review, June 4, 2022  

     https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/trump-said-we-should-get-along-with-russia-hes-right/

3. The War in Ukraine Marks the End of the American Century

    Mike Whitney, The Unz Review, June 7, 2022  

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-war-in-ukraine-marks-the-end-of-the-american-century/

Selected excerpts below.
 
What do you think?
 
***
 
Три интересные и наводящие на размышления статьи о текущем военном конфликте на Украине:
 
1. Что Падение Империй говорит нам о войне на Украине -
Войну России можно понимать только как кровавый постимперский конфликт.
 
     Анатолий Ливен, Внешняя политика, 20 июня 2022 г.

    Гугл перевод: http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&sl=auto&tl=ru&u=https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/20/russia-ukraine-war-putin-empire-imperialism-colonialism-conquest-collapse/

2. «Трамп сказал, что мы должны «ладить с Россией». Он прав»
 
     Майк Уитни, The Unz Review, 4 июня 2022 г.

     [Гугл перевод]
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&sl=auto&tl=ru&u=https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/trump-said-we-should-get-along-with-russia-hes-right/
 
3. Война на Украине знаменует собой конец американского века

     Майк Уитни, The Unz Review, 7 июня 2022 г.

    [Гугл перевод]
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&sl=auto&tl=ru&u=https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-war-in-ukraine-marks-the-end-of-the-american-century/

Избранные выдержки ниже.
 
Что вы думаете?

***
 
What the Fall of Empires Tells Us About the Ukraine War - Russia’s war can only be understood as a bloody post-imperial conflict.

By Anatol Lieven, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Foreign Policy
June 20, 2022, 6:16 AM
  

Excerpts:

The Soviet Union is commonly described in the West as the “Soviet empire”—or even “Russian empire”—and in key respects this was indeed the case. During the Cold War, Moscow occupied and controlled a collection of states along its periphery, and the historical record of Russia’s expansion through conquest and colonization is abundantly clear. But in neither journalism nor academia has this led to what should have been a logical conclusion when it comes to understanding conflicts in the former Soviet space: Namely, to place these conflicts into the wider context of what happens when empires fall.

This lack of interest seems odd, given the Western liberal intelligentsia’s deep concern with imperialism and its critiques. When I covered the collapse of the Soviet Union and its aftermath as a journalist for the Times of London, my prism was shaped by years spent working in South Asia—first as a student of imperial history and then as a journalist. It was therefore natural for me to see the disintegration of the Soviet space as a post-imperial process. This was perhaps the greatest difference between my perspective and that of most of my Western colleagues.
...  
Yet empires notoriously also freeze, generate, and incubate conflicts. Sometimes this is because imperial rule suspends previous conflicts, as between Hindus and Muslims in British India or Armenians and Azeris under the tsars and Soviets. Sometimes the source of conflict is the empire’s creation of completely new states or states with new borders—such as Iraq in the Middle East—that lump together different ethnicities that had never previously lived in the same polity, divide a people among neighboring states, or force ancient enemies under one roof, as in the former Yugoslavia and many African nations. This leads not only to civil conflicts but sometimes to wars between successor states—as in Kashmir, the former Yugoslavia, and Ukraine—as successor states fight to redraw borders in accordance with their version of ethnic or ethno-religious legitimacy.

Sometimes bitter resentment is the result of mass migration set off by imperial economic development or targeted colonization: English and Scots to Ireland, Chinese to the East Indies, Indians to Fiji and the West Indies, Tamils to what is now Sri Lanka, Georgians to Abkhazia, Russians to the Baltic republics and parts of Ukraine. Nowhere have the results been free of serious tension.

Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is formal or informal arrangements such as those in Malaysia and the Baltic states, whereby the indigenous populations monopolize control over government and the security forces, while the descendants of Chinese and Russian immigrants, respectively, dominate much or part of the economy. The worst outcomes are dreadful massacres such as the killings of Chinese that accompanied the Indonesian coup of 1965 or violent spasms such as the Georgian-Abkhaz War of 1992-93 that began with Georgian armed pogroms against Abkhaz and ended with the ethnic cleansing of most of the Georgian population by the Abkhaz victors.

Neither international law nor democracy provides clear-cut answers to any of these disputes. It was the theory of ethnic self-determination in the name of democracy, as adopted by U.S. President Woodrow Wilson at the conclusion of World War I, that provided an ostensibly liberal rationale for violent separation and cleansing across the vast ethnic tapestry of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. As in Kosovo, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Crimea, the principles of international law and democracy often work against each other, with the result that states pick and choose between them depending on their own advantage. Majoritarian democracy is a notoriously dangerous principle in ethnically divided societies with different national allegiances, as the history of Northern Ireland from the 1920s to the 1990s so vividly demonstrates.

Finally, it is hardly reasonable to expect local people and their leaders to be automatically obedient to international laws they never made or agreed to. When the British, Ottoman, Habsburg, and Soviet empires collapsed and Yugoslavia disintegrated, it was very natural for Northern Irish Catholics, Kurds, Sudeten Germans, Kosovar Albanians, Kashmiri Muslims, Bangladeshis, Biafrans, Serbs, Croats, Pashtuns, Chechens, South Ossetians, Karabakh Armenians, and Crimean Russians to seek or support independence and/or union with co-ethnics in a neighboring state. Sometimes, as in Ireland, South Asia, and Sudan, the result (after much violence) has been internationally accepted partition. In a majority of cases, things have been decided by some combination of pragmatism and superior force.
...

None of this is to excuse the Russian invasion of Ukraine, any more than it excuses the frequently horrendous behavior of other imperial and post-imperial states. What it does suggest is two things: First, that Russian wars in Ukraine and the Caucasus are not part of some wider plan for aggression against the West. The Russian war in Ukraine is about Ukraine. We can therefore seek a pragmatic solution to the war without fearing that this will embolden Russia to threaten NATO and the European Union, with the possible exception of the Baltic states—and then only if the Balts were to take some recklessly aggressive action against Russia (for example, by cutting communications to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad).

Contrary to much Western reporting, there has been little evidence of any concrete Russian intentions to invade the Baltic states, let alone Finland or Poland. As a Russian official once told me, “We ruled Poland for almost 200 years, and all it brought us was endless trouble. Why on earth would we want to swallow that hedgehog again?” From the point of view of vital Western interests, it is therefore unnecessary to seek permanently to disable Russia.

Secondly, we should approach the search for a settlement in Ukraine in a spirit of ethical realism, aimed at a lasting peace that will secure Ukraine’s independence and potential path toward joining the EU, rather than in a mood of hyper-legalism and hyper-moralism that is all too likely to make peace impossible and which our own history does not justify. In the other post-imperial cases I have mentioned, only very rarely has absolute victory for one side or the other been possible—and then only at the cost of prolonged war and huge suffering. In the majority of cases where some sort of peace, however flawed, has been achieved, it has been through some form of pragmatic compromise. That is the best we can and should work for in the case of Russia and Ukraine.

One funny aspect of contemporary Western liberals is that even as they have publicly beaten their own breasts with contrition and shame for the past sins of Western colonialism, they go on to claim moral superiority over other countries that have inherited some of the same problems and committed some of the same sins. This sort of behavior has a prominent place in the history of religion but is neither moral nor practically helpful.
 
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/20/russia-ukraine-war-putin-empire-imperialism-colonialism-conquest-collapse/

***

Trump Said We Should "Get Along with Russia". He's Right

Mike Whitney
The Unz Review
June 4, 2022

Excerpt:

Look at this map of Ukraine.

Can you see what’s going on? The Russians are creating a buffer zone along their western perimeter.

Why are they doing that? What benefit do they derive from a buffer zone?

Well, a buffer zone creates a distance between Russia and Ukraine which Putin thinks is necessary since Ukraine is threatening to join NATO. So, he’s creating his own DMZ on his western flank.

But what does that prove?

It proves that we’ve been lied to from the very beginning. Putin was not planning to reconstruct the Soviet Empire like the media told us. He did not want to seize the Capitol, Kiev, and he did not want to conquer the entire Ukrainian landmass. That was all baloney.

What he wanted to do, is what he has done.

Don’t take my word for it, look at the map. You don’t need CNN or Rachel Maddow to tell you what you can see with your own two eyes. This is the reality ‘on the ground’.

This is a buffer zone. It creates a distance between Russia and Ukraine, it protects the ethnic Russians in the Donbass region, and it establishes a landbridge to Crimea where Russia’s vital deep-water port of Sevastopol is located. In other words, it achieves what Putin wanted to achieve from the very beginning, that is, enhanced security along his western border.

What we are seeing is the basic parameters of Russia’s “Special Military Operation”. Yes, many people will prefer to call it a “war”, but the term is not nearly as precise as “Special Military Operation”.

Why?

Because “Special Military Operation” indicates that the main objective is to save the lives of the ethnic Russians who had been under constant bombardment for the last 8 years and, also, to create a security zone that prevents a hostile NATO army and its missile system from being deployed to Russia’s border. These are the goals of the “Special Military Operation”; to “demiliterize” and “denazify” the area under Russia’s control. Get it?

Will the “Special Military Operation” go beyond the Donbass to Kiev and cities in the west?

Probably, not. Going beyond the Donbass would likely involve a complete mobilization of men and resources which has not yet taken place in Russia. By not mobilizing, Putin is signaling to the west that he will limit his operation to the area on the map. (With some slight expansion) Putin is indicating that his main concern is security, and since his concerns were casually brushed aside by Biden and Zelensky, he took matters into his own hands. In other words, he imposed his own settlement.

Okay, but if these are the parameters of the Special Military Operation, then what are the chances of a wider war?

That depends on Biden. If Washington continues on the path of escalation –by sending weapons systems that can strike targets in Russia– then Putin will respond. We should know that by now. Putin is not going to back down no matter what. If Washington wants to up-the-ante, then they should prepare for an equal response. That’s the way it’s going to work. For now, the “Special Military Operation” is just a “Special Military Operation”. But when it becomes a war, then all bets are off. Then we will see a full mobilisation, a complete rupture in US-Russo relations, and a halt to all hydrocarbon flows from east to west.

Do you think Europe and the United States are prepared for that? Do you think the EU can replace the 25% of the oil and 40% of all the natural gas it presently imports from Russia? Do you have a wind-powered car that will get you to work on time or a factory that will run on solar power? Do you have a plan for heating your house with hydrogen or perhaps a battery from an old Prius?

No, you don’t, and neither does Europe. Europe runs on fossil fuels. America runs on fossil fuels And the more fossil fuel that is consumed, the more the economy grows. The less fossil fuel is consumed, the more the economy shrinks. Are you prepared for life in a shrinking economy with high unemployment, skyrocketing inflation, unending recession, and deepening social malaise brought on by your government’s misguided desire to “stick it to Putin”?

That’s a bad choice, isn’t it? Especially when a face-saving deal can be made at anytime. In fact, Biden could stop the fighting tomorrow if he extended the hand of friendship to Putin and declared that, yes, Ukraine will accept neutrality til the end of time and NATO expansion will stop ASAP.

That’s all it would take. Just extend the olive branch and Putin will ‘call off the dogs’. Guaranteed.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/trump-said-we-should-get-along-with-russia-hes-right/

***

The War in Ukraine Marks the End of the American Century

Mike Whitney
The Unz Review
June 7, 2022   
Excerpts:

     “The ferocity of the confrontation in Ukraine shows that we’re talking about much more than the fate of the regime in Kiev. The architecture of the entire world order is at stake.” Sergei Naryshkin, Director of Foreign Intelligence

Here’s your ‘reserve currency’ thought for the day: Every US dollar is a check written on an account that is overdrawn by 30 trillion dollars.

It’s true. The “full faith and credit” of the US Treasury is largely a myth held together by an institutional framework that rests on a foundation of pure sand. In fact, the USD is not worth the paper it is printed on; it is an IOU flailing in an ocean of red ink. The only thing keeping the USD from vanishing into the ether, is the trust of credulous people who continue to accept it as legal tender.

But why do people remain confident in the dollar when its flaws are known to all? After all, America’s $30 trillion National Debt is hardly a secret, nor is the additional $9 trillion that’s piled up on the Fed’s balance sheet. That is a stealth debt of which the American people are completely unaware, but they are responsible for all the same.

In order to answer that question, we need to look at how the system actually works and how the dollar is propped up by the numerous institutions that were created following WW2. These institutions provide an environment for conducting history’s longest and most flagrant swindle, the exchange of high-ticket manufactured goods, raw materials and hard-labor for slips of green paper with dead presidents on them. One can only marvel at the genius of the elites who concocted this scam and then imposed it wholesale on the masses without a peep of protest. Of course, the system is accompanied by various enforcement mechanisms that swiftly remove anyone who tries to either break free from the dollar or, God help us, create an alternate system altogether. (Saddam Hussein and Muammar Qaddafi come to mind.) But the fact is– aside from the institutional framework and the ruthless extermination of dollar opponents– there’s no reason why humanity should remain yoked to a currency that is buried beneath a mountain of debt and whose real value is virtually unknowable.

It wasn’t always like this. There was a time when the dollar was the strongest currency in the world and deserved its spot at the top of the heap.
...
The real reason the dollar has remained the world’s premier currency is because of the cartelization of Central Banking. The Western Central Banks are a de facto monopoly run by a small cabal of inter-breeding bottom-feeders who coordinate and collude on monetary policy in order to preserve their maniacal death-grip on the financial markets and the global economy. It’s a Monetary Mafia and– as George Carlin famously said: “You and I are not in it. You and I are not in the big club.” Bottom line: It is the relentless manipulation of interest rates, forward guidance and Quantitative Easing (QE) that has kept the dollar in its lofty but undeserved spot.

But all that is about to change due entirely to Biden’s reckless foreign policy which is forcing critical players in the global economy to create their own rival system. This is a real tragedy for the West that has enjoyed a century of nonstop wealth extraction from the developing world. Now– due to the economic sanctions on Russia– an entirely new order is emerging in which the dollar will be substituted for national currencies (processed through an independent financial settlement system) in bilateral trade deals until– later this year– Russia launches an exchange-traded commodities-backed currency that will be used by trading partners in Asia and Africa. Washington’s theft of Russia’s foreign reserves in April turbo-charged the current process which was further accelerated by banning of Russia from foreign markets. In short, US economic sanctions and boycotts have expanded the non-dollar zone by many orders of magnitude and forced the creation of a new monetary order.

How dumb is that? For decades the US has been running a scam in which it exchanges its fishwrap currency for things of genuine value. (oil, manufactured goods and labor) But now the Biden troupe has scrapped that system altogether and divided the world into warring camps.

But, why?

To punish Russia, is that it?

Yes, that’s it.

But, if that’s the case, then shouldn’t we try to figure out whether the sanctions actually work or not before we recklessly change the system?

Too late for that. The war on Russia has begun and the early results are already pouring in
...
Does anyone in Washington think about these things or are they all so drunk on their own press clippings they’ve completely lost touch with reality?

Here’s more from an article at RT:

    “Even as the collective West continues to insist – against all observable reality – that the conflict in Ukraine is going well for Kiev, major media outlets are becoming increasingly uneasy with the situation on the economic front. More and more observers are admitting that the embargoes imposed by the US and its allies aren’t crushing the Russian economy, as originally intended, but rather their own.…

    “Russia is winning the economic war,” the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott declared on Thursday. “It is now three months since the west launched its economic war against Russia, and it is not going according to plan. On the contrary, things are going very badly indeed,” he wrote…

    In a May 30 essay, Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins also said that the embargo had failed…

    As Jenkins points out, the sanctions have actually raised the price of Russian exports such as oil and grain – thus enriching, rather than impoverishing, Moscow while leaving Europeans short of gas and Africans running out of food.” (“As sanctions fail to work and Russia’s advance continues, Western media changes its tune on Ukraine”, RT)

Did you catch that part about “Russia winning the economic war”? What do you think that means in practical terms?

Does it mean that Washington’s failed attempt to maintain its global hegemony by “weakening” Russia is actually putting enormous strains on the Transatlantic Alliance and NATO that will trigger a re-calibration of relations leading to a defiant rejection of the “rules-based system.”

Is that what it means? Is Europe going to split with Washington and leave America to sink beneath its $30 trillion ocean of red ink?

Yes, that’s exactly what it means.

Uncle Sam’s 30 Year Bender

Proponents of Washington’s proxy-war have no idea of the magnitude of their mistake or how much damage they are inflicting on their own country. The Ukraine debacle is the culmination of 30 years of bloody interventions that have brought us to a tipping point where the nation’s fortunes are about to take a dramatic turn-for-the-worse. As the dollar-zone shrinks, standards of living will plunge, unemployment will soar, and the economy will go into a downward-death spiral.

Washington has greatly underestimated its vulnerability to catastrophic geopolitical blowback that is about to bring the New American Century to a swift and excruciating end.

A wise leader would do everything in his power to pull us back from the brink.
 
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-war-in-ukraine-marks-the-end-of-the-american-century/

***

 

War in Ukraine: Why it happened and what the working & middle classes can do to prevent and resolve such conflicts.

War in Ukraine: Why it happened and what the working & middle classes can do to prevent and resolve such conflicts.

 

Greg Krasovsky

February 28, 2022

   

Eugene V. Debs Museum

@DebsMuseum

“And here let me emphasize the fact…

That the working class who fight all the battles, the working class who makes the supreme sacrifices, the working class who freely shed their blood and furnish the corpses, have never yet had a voice in either declaring war or making peace.”

By intersectionelle
@intersectionelle
 
 

I read the above quote today on Facebook and thought about Ukraine, Russia, America, Europe, the rest of the world and its working & middle classes.   

First, the working and middle class of Ukraine did try to have their voice in declaring war or making peace by

1. Participating in the 2013-2014 EuroMaidan protests and counter-protests,

    - some wanted a more democratic, corruption-free Ukraine that would soon become a member of the EU, enjoy American support an assistance and would distance itself from Putin’s Russia,

    - others were against the EU association treaty and supported President Yanukovich as a protector from Western Ukrainian nationalism and break in good relations (economic, political, cultural and military) with Russia

2. Participating in Crimea’s March 2014 People’s referendum for rejoining Russia after being taken out of it “administratively” by Soviet Communist leader Khrushchev in 1954,

 - which has led to US/EU sanctions against Crimea and Ukraine’s inhuman blockade of Crimea, including depriving it of water by closing a key fresh-water delivery canal. 

3. Participating in the spring of 2014 people’s referendums that took place in Eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Cola Basin (Donbas) Donetsk and Lugansk regions where local regular people (without any outside pressure) stood in lines for hours under the threat of Ukrainian Military attack and voted for governmental sovereignty of their regions from the new Pro-American government in Kiev that that did not recognize as legitimate because it illegally (unconstitutionally) ousted “their” President Yanukovich (who was from Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine)  

- that led to the seven-year civil war and military standoff which devastated Donbas in 2014 and 2015 (until the Minsk Peace Agreements were signed), killed thousands of civilians, saw numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity, primarily from the Ukrainian Military and “Volunteer” Paramilitary units, destroyed most of Donbas’ industry and caused severe stress, poverty, lack of medical care and misery (statistically leading to premature deaths) for Donbas’ elderly who have been deprived of their hard-earned Ukrainian pensions.

4. Participating in current President Zelensky’s election, who appeared as a reasonable young and independent candidate who would bring peace to Ukraine by protecting the rights of Russian-speaking and ethnic Ukrainians, reign in extreme Ukrainian Nationalists and Neo-Nazis and bring an end to the civil war in Donbas with the DNR/LNR peoples’ republics that received Russian humanitarian, economic, political and military support.

 - that led to unfulfilled electoral campaign promises, more anti-Russian laws, regulations and persecution, higher levels of Ukrainian Nationalist activity, worsened relations with Russia, refusal to end the civil war in Donbas based on written agreements (Minsk Protocols) and the current show-down with Russian that has resulted in today’s war in Ukraine with Russian troops.

Second, but why did the working class fail with its voice?

Here’s my analysis of what the working and middle classes are up against (and not just in Ukraine), what they need to control their governments and what happens (using Ukraine as an example) when the working and middle classes are not able to control their governments and politicians who may be motivated to start military conflicts in which the working and middle classes will lose the most lives, wealth, health and a peaceful future for their children and countries.

If the working & middle classes of America, Ukraine, and Russia were

A. Fully informed of

 - how financial-industrial groups control countries, governments (executive, legislative and judicial branches), politicians and political parties,

 - the inner workings (the guts) of geopolitics,

 - the pros & cons of globalism for regular folks,

 - current "free-market" capitalism,

 - the military-industrial complex and its immense control over government spending and foreign policy, including through massive lobbying and other forms of legalized bribery,

 - government & corporate propaganda through main-stream and social media,

 - other age-proven means of controlling, subjugating, and exploiting domestic and foreign populations, such as through

 -- information warfare,

 -- cultural tools (movies, TV, theater, comedy, music and even art), to advance certain political, economic, military, cultural or social agendas,

 -- applied religion (incl when religious leaders and organizations serve the interests of those in power),

 -- economic policies, including using labor laws and control of labor unions,

 -- use of racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious, and other differences (even gender and sexual orientation) to either extol the virtues (superiority) of a particular key group or to divide and conquer

 -- massive infusions of hard-to-trace money into domestic and foreign politics, including political parties, politicians, and various non-profit organizations (with noble declared "do-good" objectives but with actual ulterior motives and roles in politics)

 -- Effective monitoring, infiltration, influence, exploitation and even control of main-stream, alternative and social media by security and intelligence services.

and 

B. Able to use that knowledge and understanding for competent control of their governments through

- voting at the voting booth as a well-educated and observant electorate,

-  voting with their wallets as educated consumers who are willing to boycott sellers of goods or services that don't support the voter's political, economic, or cultural views & agendas,

- strict monitoring of political parties, their sponsors, politicians, and government work & polices (of all three branches) with the aid of independent, objective, experienced and competent news media outlets & investigative journalists, whistle-blowers protected by law (de facto and de jure) and various other government watchdogs and independent human rights groups (not financed or influenced by corporate money and other political interests),

THEN today, in 2022, we would NOT have a war in Ukraine, a war whose start was set in motion in 2014 when Ukraine experienced U.S. sponsored regime change (as publicly admitted by senior U.S. government officials) which was followed by

 - civil war, that could have been avoided if the Ukrainian government led by President Poroshenko negotiated with the Donetsk Coal Basin Separatist republics (DNR/LNR) over reasonable demands basic democratic civil rights and limited local government autonomy,

 - ethnic strife, xenophobia, extremist nationalism, ethnic and religious intimidation and harassment, all directed against ethnic Russians, Russian-speakers and members of the Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox Church,

 - militarization which led to a country of only 30 million people having (per Ukrainian assurances) the biggest army in Europe after Russia,

 - de facto suspension of basic civil liberties, like 

   -- freedom of the press,

   -- separation of church and state,

   -- freedom of assembly, and

   -- equal rights and full protection under the law for all ethnic, religious, and linguistic groups,

for leading opponents of the new Ukrainian government heavily dependent on (if not controlled by) the US & its NATO/EU allies, the 8-year-old civil war with the LNR/DNR, and its Anti-Russian policies,

All of the above were encouraged, supported, organized and financed by super-powers (first and foremost by the United States of America) involved in a death-struggle over world-wide control of the most profitable resources that our planet has today, including

- energy carriers (oil & natural gas),

 - agricultural land & products,

 - fresh water supplies,

 - metals & minerals, lumber etc.

 - construction-grade sand (for making cement & concrete),

 - key land and sea routes for transport of products and energy carriers between Europe and Asia, and

 - well-educated and disciplined human capital (human resources, i.e., people) who are willing to work hard, travel and relocate for significantly less than their counterparts in world's leading economies.

 

How?

Because, the working & middle classes of the U.S., its NATO allies, the EU and even in Ukraine and Russia did not understand and was not aware sufficiently of what was going on and where it was heading (military intervention or invasion, depending on your point of view, as some would say a mere difference in semantics, not in its prosecution on the ground).

 

Why?

Because the working and middle classes are too busy trying to make ends meet to have sufficient time to do their own investigative research and instead primarily rely on information they receive from their domestic mainstream and social media (both public and corporate owned), who, as described above, have their own role to play in

- keeping the target populations docile, loyal (to their country's political establishment), and

- subservient to the interests of the dominant financial-industrial groups that compose the establishment and control their governments (not just through politicians but through key government officials, managers, and employees in all three branches of government recently labeled as the "Deep State").      

 

With what results?

 1. An eight (8) year old civil war in Eastern Ukraine which

    1.1. turned the civilian populations of the Donetsk & Lugansk People's Republics into impoverished & blockaded residents who lived under the constant threat of Ukrainian Army & Volunteer Territorial Battalions (i.e. Nationalist Paramilitaries) just like the residents of the Gaza Strip in Israel/Palestine.

    1.2. Decisively showed by the end of 2021 that the Ukrainian Government (both under Presidents of Poroshenko and Zelensky) were NOT interested in ending this civil war with LNR/DNR either through

     (a) direct negotiations with DNR/LNR (they refused to negotiate with "Pro-Russian terrorists and puppets" although these local governments had the overwhelming support and trust of the local populations, and/or

     (b) through the Minsk Agreements and Steinmeier formula (agreed upon in writing with France, Germany, and Russia as guarantors), which called for

(i) The Ukrainian Parliament passing a law giving the DNR/LNR territories special status (decentralization or limited local autonomy), including the right to use Russian as a second government language,

(ii) The Ukrainian Government amnestying those involved in LNR/DNR,

(iii) Permitting local elections for local officials in LNR/DNR

(iv) Regaining full control of the Ukrainian-Russian border under the watch of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service.

    1.3. Saw numerous war crimes, crimes against humanity and violations of human rights (detentions, beatings, torture, extrajudicial prosecutions, and persecution of the opposition) both by the government military and security forces as well as nationalist groups (even including Neo-Nazis) and their paramilitary organizations,

   1.4. Destroyed the economy of the Donetsk Coal Basin and damaged the entire Ukrainian's economy,

   1.5. Facilitated low birth rates and massive migration abroad, especially among the brightest, highly qualified and educated Ukrainians,

2. A generation of Ukrainians taught to hate Russia (as the "Aggressor" who supported the LNR/DNR politically, economically and militarily), Russians as a people, the Russian language and even Russian culture.

Who taught them? Ukrainian state and corporate owned main-stream media through what you would call propaganda.

A generation that was not even allowed access to LNR/DNR (unless you have family there and obtain a special permit) to see for themselves what their government's military and state-approved nationalist paramilitaries were doing to the local populations.

3. A Developing Former-Soviet Country with a population of only 30-35 million that had, if Ukrainian & Russian media are telling the truth, around 3,000 accredited U.S. diplomatic personnel, where,  every major government policy, political, economic, military, security & intelligence, financial and legislative decision was made by the Ukrainian government in coordination with the U.S. government (via the local U.S. embassy, State Department, Department of Defense, CIA and the rest of the U.S. Intelligence Community).

 - Does that sound like a sovereign and independent country to you? Or does it look more like a colony or a vassal state?

4. A Country where the U.S. Department of Defense built and operated thirteen (13, what a lucky number!) biological research labs for studying pathogens probably too dangerous to test in the United States for liability & political reasons were something to break-out!

Can you say "Gain of Function Research grant to / contract with a certain Chinese Institute of Virology" to study how viruses can be made more lethal (strictly for research purposes, of course!) in facilities less than 100 miles away from Russia? 

5. A country where WWII Nazi collaborators and veterans of German Nazi Waffen SS units (who actively participated in the genocide of Ukrainians and Poles in Ukraine during Nazi occupation) have been made national heroes and monuments are being put up for them even during the reign of a Ukrainian Jewish President (who is irrefutably afraid to stand up to Ukrainian Radical Nationalists and Neo-Nazis because the U.S. and its NATO allies consider them the staunchest local anti-Russian foot soldiers)

6. A country that has received billions in military aid from the U.S. and its NATO allies all for the purpose of "countering Russian Aggression" (i.e. for taking Crimea back in 2014 based on a popular referendum and for supporting the DNR/LNR separatist republics) before Russia even thought of intervening militarily in Ukraine.

7. A Country where senior citizens can barely afford to (a) pay their utility bills (if at all), (b) buy meats/poultry on a regular basis, (c) buy over the counter and prescription drugs, (d) buy new clothes and travel even domestically (forget about abroad).  

8. A country where local manufacturing, especially heavy industry (built during those evil Soviet days) is disappearing because it can't compete with low-cost centers in Asia and has lost Russia as one of its primary customers (due to Ukrainian Sanctions against Russia),

9. A Country that neighbors Russia and shares a common history, heritage and ethnic make-up whose leadership (with US support/Instructions) decided that it would a good idea to join NATO (a military block whose primary adversary since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 is Russia).

10. A Country whose young former comedian/actor president this past winter and fall thought it would be a good idea to counter Russian demands -- that Ukraine abandon its desire to join NATO and have any NATO bases, troops or weapons systems on its soil that would present a military threat to Russia -- with public suggestions that Ukraine should consider obtaining nuclear weapons and whose military commanders proposed that American THAAD missile defense systems be deployed around major Ukrainian cities.

 

Now that we've done a ten count of results, here are the ultimate knock-out results that the Ukrainian, American, European, and Russian working and middle classes should have anticipated and tried to avoid at all costs (as human beings, citizens, taxpayers, voters, consumers, and even rational members of their countries' armed forces):

11. Russia's political and government leadership, led by President Putin in all likelihood decided that all the above (including results 1 to 10), based on their knowledge and understanding of history and experience in international politics, military affairs, and the intelligence services, was sufficient to confirm their professional suspicions that

- Ukraine is being used by the U.S. and its NATO/EU allies as an anti-Russian project who job it is not just to "deter Russian Aggression", but to facilitate regime change in Russia (through political, military, economic and cultural pressure) in order to welcome (i.e. install) a Pro-American/NATO/EU Russian government which would accept US/NATO/EU influence, investments, laws and eventually economic, political and military control -- basically, what they perceive as eventual loss of Russian sovereignty.

- Ukraine (as managed by the US) is not interested in resolving the civil war in Eastern Ukraine with LNR/DNR through the Minsk Agreements (Protocol) and Steinmeier formula because it is not interested in getting (re-admitting into Ukraine's political life) an amnestied Pro-Russian Donbas electorate with autonomy, decentralization and native Russian language, culture and religion.

- Ukraine will not abandon its aspirations to join NATO and have NATO bases, troops and weapons systems on its soil and given the collapse of negotiations with the U.S. over Ukraine's NATO membership, probably imminent NATO membership for Ukraine with all ensuing military and geopolitical ramifications.

- The U.S. and its NATO allies will create military bases (even without or before NATO membership), station its troops and deploy dual use (offensive/defensive) missile systems and could even surreptitiously deploy tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil.

- Ukraine (i.e. with US approval or under US orders/instructions/advice) is likely to try with US/NATO military support (weapons, military "advisors", covert foreign special forces (US, UK, Canada, etc.) a military takeover of

-- DNR/LNR which would make Russia come to the military aid of LNR/DNR, with all ensuing military, economic and political ramifications.

-- Crimea (now by Russia as its historical and legal territory), once Ukraine entered NATO, which could provoke a Russia-NATO conflict (a conflict between states with nuclear weapons, including bombs, both short/medium range tactical and intercontinental missiles and even artillery shells).

and made the political conclusion (that super-powers and even regional powers make throughout history) that Ukraine, in its present militarized state, under its current leadership and U.S. control and with all the above ingredients CONSTITUTES A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER

- To Russian-speaking populations and Russian citizens of the Eastern Ukrainian Pro-Russian LNR/DNR peoples' republics (accusations of genocide), and, more importantly,

 - To Russia's own military, political and economic security -- i.e. national security --

AND MUST BE NEUTRALIZED.

Given the recent Anti-Russian posturing (which was transmitted and amplified by Western mainstream and social media) of political leaders of Ukraine (President, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense), America (President, State Department, Department of Defense, Intelligence Community, and members of Congress), NATO Leadership and other NATO member states, Russia's leadership likely made a decision that the clear and present danger emanating from Ukraine must be NEUTRALIZED IMMEDIATELY.

12. Once Russia's political leadership finally made such an ominous government finding -- that today’s Ukraine constitutes a clear and present danger to Russia's national security (military, political, economic, and cultural), Russia acted immediately without warning!

Russia recognized LNR/DNR as sovereign states so that it could come to their military aid without "formally" challenging Ukraine's remaining territorial integrity.

Russia recognized these People’s republics based on the referendums that took place in May of 2014 where at least 90% of the residents in these Republics voted from “governmental sovereignty” from the new Ukrainian government that was installed with U.S. assistance at the end of February 2014 following the overthrow and forced ouster of lawfully elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.

Ukraine and its Western allies consider this a clear violation of international law and a violation of the international principle of a country’s territorial integrity, which in their view trumps the principle of a people’s right to self-determination, especially during or after regime change or civil war.

  

13. As a result of its finding Russia launched on Ukrainian soil what it called a military operation to defend the people of DNR/LNR

 

13.1. "Demilitarize" Ukraine,

 - to Defend the DNR/LNR people’s republics from Ukrainian aggression, namely continued shelling of civilian areas, blockades of trade and even civilian infrastructure 

 - to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member, being under the control of any NATO member states (first and foremost the USA) hosting any NATO bases, troops or weapons on its soil and presenting a military threat to Russia by being used as pretense or an alleged staging ground (beachhead) for military operations against Russia.

13.2. "De-Nazify" Ukraine,

- Outlaw all expressions of Nazi and Neo-Nazi political views, symbols, organizations and glorification/amnesty/pardons/benefits of WWII Ukrainian Nazi collaborators and war criminals, including those who served in the Waffen SS Division Galicia, Nazi Local Police Units and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) that was created out these units toward the end of WWII.

- This includes various Extreme Ukrainian Nationalist and Neo-Nazi groups that have sprouted up, grown and enjoyed state protection, funding and even government status (as paramilitary, national guard or auxiliary police units), like Azov Battalion, Right Sector and other groups.

13.3. "Democratize" Ukraine.

- Restore Ukraine’s pre-2014 Sovereignty and remove Ukraine from America’s political control, colonization, and alleged use as a staging ground (beachhead) for regime change in Russia or military operations against Russia.

- Remove undemocratic Ukrainian laws (instituted under US approval since 2014) that violate

-- the civil and human rights of ethnics Russians and Russian Eastern Orthodox worshipers,

-- the civil and human rights of Russian-speakers (this includes making Russian an official second state language of Ukraine, which reflects its historical and current use in Ukraine, especially in Russian regions that were added to Ukraine by Lenin’s Bolsheviks in 1922)   

-- freedom of speech, including re-opening and protecting from persecution Pro-Russian and Russian-language news media,

-- freedom of assembly and political expression, which includes re-opening and protecting from persecution any Pro-Russian political parties, including the communist party,

-- amnesty and protection from prosecution and persecution of Ukrainians and Russians who were arrested, incarcerated, convicted or wanted for Pro-Russian or Pro-separatist views (i.e. support of DNR/LNR).

The United States and its allies, including Ukraine, say that these three objectives are false pretenses or not needed and call the Russian intervention (Operation Z) an Russian invasion to occupy Ukraine and turn into a vassal Russian state.

Russia and its allies call it a justified military intervention that, when completed, will allow Ukrainians to make a free democratic decision on how they want to live without endangering Russia’s national security.

This may include the “completion” of Ukraine’s “de-communization”, as Russian President Putin spoke about (with dry humor, cynicism, or sarcasm) during his speech recognizing the DNR/LNR people’s republics, including, possibly, if any of the Ukrainian regions that were incorporated into Ukraine by the Soviets/Bolshevik leaders like Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev, without any say from their residents, want to remain in Ukraine or rejoin the countries from which they were taken by force -- Hungary (1945), Poland (1939), Romania (1945), Russia (1922), and Slovakia  (1945).

Ukraine and its allies clearly view any such opportunity for self-determination by its people as a violation of its territorial integrity and international law.

 

So what happens if and when Russian Operation Z is completed?

 

Scenario A:

If, at the end of the Russian 3-D Operation Z (Demilitarize, De-Nazify and Democratize), Ukraine is, as the West sees, “loses to Russia and is conquered/occupied by it”, then

- Ukraine will not be able to join NATO and may not be able to join the EU -- unless NATO or the EU somehow manage to grant Ukraine as a last resort emergency/provisional NATO / EU membership or partnership in an effort to protect it – through sanctions and direct military assistance -- from imminent military loss to Russian forces and collapse of its present Pro-US/NATO/EU government.

- EU states faces serious challenges not only from the massive waves of Ukrainian refugees, but also from the need to lift sanctions from Russia in exchange for Russian natural gas deliveries & oil deliveries (through Ukraine, Belarus, and North Stream 1 & 2 gas pipelines) as well as the expected public testimony at trials of Ukrainian war criminals for crimes committed in Ukraine since 2014 in the Donetsk Coal Basin (Donbas) civil ware as well as other Ukrainian cities, including the May 2, 2014 Odessa House Labor Unions Arson and Massacre.

- But we could see a neutral, demilitarized, de-Nazified and independent (as much as politically and militarily possible from both US/NATO/EU and Russia) and democratic country if the declared Russian intentions are true and realized fairly and effectively

 

Scenario B:

If a Pro-US/NATO/EU Ukraine is “saved” from Russia’s completion of Operation Z through a negotiated settlement with Russia under the whip of severe military losses, US & EU sanctions, NATO assistance and/or unprecedented emergency EU/NATO membership, then we’re likely to see either

Option 1:  

A Ukraine

- that could become a EU member (strictly for political reasons even if it cannot satisfy the usual EU economic, financial, legal and political prerequisites for candidates)

- constrained with pledges not to join NATO and/or have NATO bases, troops or weapons on its soil

- may have to give up some or all of its current anti-democratic and Anti-Russian laws and policies.

And the above may satisfy Russia, provided current anti-Russian sanctions are lifted and other reasonable demands are met, including written guarantees of Ukraine’s status that can be effectively and objectively enforced by an international arrangement with political, economic, and military enforcement power (which the UN lacks in current form) if Ukraine and its current Western sponsors violate their peace treaty obligations.

Option 2: 

A Ukraine that remains a military, political, economic, and cultural threat to Russia with all ensuing ramifications down the road – which is basically delayed war and more misery for Ukraine, neighboring countries (like Russia and Byelorussia) with potential world-wide repercussions from a military conflict that could suck in NATO and other countries.

 

So, what’s the solution – both short and long-term – for the working and middle classes to prevent and end conflicts like the current "limited military operation" (war) in Ukraine?

As I’ve written before, there’s a fairly straight forward five-point plan:

1. Get informed from independent & alternative media sources on domestic & foreign policy, geopolitics, globalism and various “New World” agendas (not just regarding government and order, but also about population control [physical and psychological] and environmental policies)

2. Talk to the people on the ground on both sides of any conflict (people’s diplomacy),

3. Understand how big government, political parties, politicians, and government officials (elected and appointed) work in the real world together with (report to or are controlled / owned by) big money, big business and the military-industrial complex (they don’t teach you this in school!),

4. Understand how to identify and resist state and private sector propaganda (misinformation / disinformation, including warmongering and demonization of political, military, economic, cultural, ethnic, and religious opponents),

5. Control your government (and big money/business that tries to control it as well) by being an alert, if not constantly suspicious, well informed, and active citizen, taxpayer, voter and consumer who will

- monitor his government policies and officials (elected and appointed) at ALL times,

- make his political will and positions known during pre-electoral campaigns and at the voting booth (regularly),

- vote with his wallet as a consumer (this includes news!) to let big business know his political preferences (when you know who the manufacturers of the products you buy support in politics and government)

- make his voice heard at his politicians and public officials’ offices (through written inquiries and complaints that demand answers), and

- make his voice heard on the street through peaceful & lawful protests with like-minded folks.   

So, if we, as the working and middle classes of the world can start doing all of the above to control our governments, then we can prevent what happened in Ukraine today in other places (trust me, there will be other places soon enough!) – a tragedy in the making since 2014 (some would say since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991) as a result of foreign intervention in its domestic affairs for certain geopolitical purposes under the noble guise of spreading democracy and freedom worldwide.

And maybe we can still help the people of Ukraine, including the working and middle class, get the best possible outcome in today’s situation.

  

Current humanitarian considerations:

Although at this point, based on what I have seen in Donbas in 2014, namely the destruction of civilian infrastructure, residential buildings (housing) and suffering for the local population, given the overwhelming advantage of Russian military power, its probably a good idea for the Ukrainian government (that still functions) to order its remaining armed forces and paramilitaries to lay down their arms and surrender now -- even if just for purely humanitarian reasons (to protect their own civilian populations, especially those stuck in surrounded cities and running out of food, water, medical care, heating and electricity).

Measures should also be implemented ASAP to evacuate civilians out of areas, including dangerous towns, and cities -- if necessary with Russian cooperation.

And then let negotiations start (if appropriate and beneficial for the Ukrainian people, with US/NATO/EU participation) over the political, economic and military future of Ukraine while the civilian populations recovers and restore their lives in safety from this "limited military Operation Z" (limited/local war to regular people).

 

Or we can stand buy and watch Ukrainian military and paramilitaries take up defensive positions and put armor and artillery in residential neighborhoods using apartment buildings and houses as shields, turning their non-evacuated inhabitants into hostages and evacuated residents into temporarily if not permanently homeless if their housing is damaged beyond repair or destroyed in combat,

And then surrender anyway when you start to run out of ammunition, fuel, weapons, and even worse, able fighting men. 

Hey,  I am all for fighting to the last man when you're facing a foreign enemy that's coming to conquers your country, take your women and children, take all your wealth, make you a slave or eventually exterminate your kind or expel your from your lands onto reservations. 

BTW, the funny thing is that many Western Ukrainians naively welcomed Nazi troops thinking that they would get a special place in the Third Reich as the Nazi-friendly and subservient Slavs who would help the Nazis conquer other Slavs (Russians) and those evil Jews. Little did the know (including the Ukrainian Nazi collaborators and Nazi Waffen SS and Police Battalion members) that the Aryan Nazis needed Ukraine for their Lebensraum and had similar eventual plans for all Slavs (the subhuman "untermenschen") - enslavement, expulsion to Siberia or extermination.     

 

This isn't that kind of war. This is closer to a civil war. Russians aren't Nazis and don't harbor any ill-will toward Ukrainian people.

This isn't America's & its NATO allies invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq or even its limited operations in Libya and Syria.

Even in those countries, every time local patriots fought to the last drop in residential areas against whom they perceived as invaders / crusaders / infidels, they ended up destroying the neighborhoods and towns they used for refuge to the ire of local civilian populations who don't really care enough at the end about the politicians who govern them to risk losing their homes, neighborhoods, livelihoods and lives.

This is perhaps more similar to America's invasions of Grenada and Panama back in the 1980s, where only political goals (regime change) were pursued without any any other nefarious plans for the local populations or their countries.

 

So when you hear (a) politicians (presidents, ministers, governors and even mayors) or generals/admirals who probably have hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars or euros stashed away abroad along with safe real estate tell you to fight to the last man, bullet and house so that they don't lose their their power -- and risk incarceration & confiscation of their property for corruption, abuse of office, war crimes & crimes against humanity -- don't listen to them without skepticism or cynicism .

If you are NOT fighting the stereotypical burning & raping Huns, Goths, Tartar-Mongol Hordes, genocidal Nazis, the Imperial Japanese in China during WWII, ISIS Al Qaeda, or Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge, AND your government leaders were irresponsible or reckless in provoking a war with your neighbor and they didn't make timely provisions for your safe evacuation, then that's on them. 

Politicians and political regimes come and go (especially ones dependent on foreign largess), but you can't bring back dead soldiers and civilians. 

And sometimes it takes decades to rebuilt destroyed infrastructure with limited money that should be spent on schools, education, hospitals, pensions and etc.

Today the chickens of civil war have come home to roost to Kharkov, Kiev and other large Ukrainian cities defended by patriotic soldiers some of whom have been hardened for the last eight years by (a) fighting the Pro-Russian DNR/LNR separatist insurgents in Eastern Ukraine and (b) constant and all-present anti-Russian propaganda and believe that  it's worth it to take cover inside cities and fight to the end for their country's independence from Russia while their cities are destroyed. 

This is why residents of Donbas learned back in 2014 and afterwards to kick out troops and armor out of their residential neighborhoods and asked armed soldiers to surrender voluntarily to avoid needless bloodshed and destruction of property.   

Hopefully, the Ukrainian people, the working and middle class, including their members in the Ukrainian armed forces and paramilitary organizations will make  the right decision not just to save their country but also innocent Ukrainian lives and property.

  

In the meantime, as a Ukrainian and a Russian (partially on my mother’s side), it breaks my heart to see innocent loss of life in Ukraine in a conflict that could and should have been avoided – if the working and middle classes of America, Russia, Ukraine and the EU understood and paid attention to what has been happening in Ukraine since 1991 and were able to take an active part and governing role in developing, monitoring and controlling their governments’ foreign political, economic and military policies that have led to this preventable war.

But what do you think?  What should the working and middle classes do in your opinion to help prevent & end civil and foreign wars?  

As always, please don't forget to share this article for thought & discussion.

 

* Disclaimer: The above is a cold-blooded applied political science analysis of what has happened in Ukraine and how countries, like Russia, the United States and other current & former super & regional powers (e.g. China, Great Britain, Germany, Austro-Hungarian Empire, Ottoman Empire, Napoleonic France, Holy Roman Empire, Roman Empire, and etc.) usually act when faced with local threats to their security from smaller neighbors who are under the influence or control of their arch-enemies.

 

Sadly, this is what they call realpolitik ("a system of politics or principles based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations"). 

 

No more and no less.