February 16, 2022
06:30 Kyiv time
So who's stayed up until this morning (Kyiv or Moscow time) to keep Ukraine safe from Russian invasion -- as predicted by unidentified but supposedly "credible" sources cited in the British Sun and Mirror newspapers?
When I read this stuff, I don't know whether to laugh or cry! Honestly!
But it makes me sad for Ukraine and my fellow Ukrainians!
So let me express some personal thoughts during this restless night brought on by a massive state and private media pre-war campaign.
In 2014 during the Euromaidan protests, many Ukrainians wanted a new, democratic, independent, corruption-free Ukraine where Ukrainians of all language, ethnicity and faith could live and prosper in peace, harmony, and mutual respect!
That's what I have always wanted for my Ukraine, too!
So, what did Ukrainians get from 2014 to 2022?
Pretty much the same old country, but with
- less democracy for the opposition, same control of politicians and political parties by local oligarchs and/or foreign powers (e.g. U.S.)
- independent of Russia, but completely under U.S. control will all ensuing consequences as an expendable pawn in the geopolitical battle between the U.S., Russia, and China.
-- this includes a massive infusion of billions of euros/dollars in military aid (training & weaponry), which any reasonable neighboring country could consider a threat, especially if it, like Russia, is in confrontation with Ukraine's primary foreign sponsors (U.S. and its NATO allies).
- same amounts of corruption on most levels of government,
- draconian undemocratic laws against the Russian language, which was the dominant language of Ukraine until 2014 (in its post 1922 and 1939 borders)
- draconian undemocratic laws and treatment of ethnic Russians (who now aren't even considered a native ethnicity of modern Soviet-created Ukraine)
- draconian undemocratic laws and state treatment against the Ukrainian Eastern Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (traditional mother-church in Ukraine until 2014)
- revival & glorification of WWII Ukrainian Nazi collaborators & war criminals who butchered thousands of Ukrainian Jews, Poles and Gypsies along with their Nazi masters,
- an 8-year-old long civil war because the post-Yanukovich Ukrainian governments (Poroshenko and Zelensky administrations) refused to even negotiate directly and reach a political settlement (e.g. with the framework of the Minsk agreements) with the Eastern Ukrainian (Donbass coal mining region) Pro-Russian separatists/insurgents who refused to recognize the unconstitutional overthrow (primarily with American assistance) of President Yanukovich in February of 2014,
-- FYI, after President Poroshenko was elected on May 24, 2014, local Donbass politicians and businessmen wrote to President Poroshenko and begged him to negotiate a political settlement with the local Pro-Russian insurgents (who did not want to live in a Ukraine ruled by Western Ukrainian nationalists supported by America and its allies).
Instead of negotiations, President Poroshenko ramped up the brutal military campaign that killed thousands of innocent civilians and eventually led to Russian military support of local insurgents from the end of August 2014 after Donetsk and Luhansk were about to be recaptured by the Ukrainian army and volunteer battalions composed of Ukrainian nationalists and even some open Neo-Nazis)
- Instead of pursuing a political solution (through negotiations) with the break-away pro-Russian Donbass People's republics (Donetsk & Luhansk, AKA DNR & LNR) and even Russia over Crimea (A Crimea that, to be honest and historically accurate, was transferred "administratively" from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 by the Soviet Union's communist party without any say from its residents) where, the majority of citizens voted to join Russia in a referendum in the spring of 2014) , the Ukrainian government has
-- allowed the perpetration of war crimes & crimes against humanity, including by periodic shelling of civilian areas and infrastructure (schools, hospitals, electrical & water facilities, residential buildings)
-- cut off the water supplies to Crimea
-- refuses to pay pensions to senior citizens in Crimea, DNR and LNR
-- refuses to allow Ukrainians to travel to those areas without special permits
-- has enacted an economic blockade against these areas (leading to under-the table corruption-full trade of key products, including coal from DNR/LNR by pretending that its coal from other countries, even as far as South Africa).
- Instead of inter-faith, inter-ethnic and political tolerance of and mutual respect, we now have a Ukraine where
(a) any public expression of faith, language and political orientation (e.g. pro-Russian, anti-NATO and/or anti-US/EU political, economic and military control that resembles colonialism) that goes against the current government's policies,
is met with
-- brutal repression, including violence & death at the hands of nationalist street thugs and
-- anti-democratic measures against freedom of speech and freedom of assembly, including selective prosecution and arrest of opposition political leaders, closure of opposition newspapers, TV stations and political parties.
and
(b) any public calls for negotiations with the Donetsk, Luhansk insurgents and their "People's Republics" are labeled as providing material support for terrorists and can lead to arrest, incarceration, beatings & torture, and lengthy prison terms in Ukraine's miserable prisons.
So what's the solution?
My opinion is that Ukraine can only thrive and develop if it
1. Reaches a political solution with the DNR/LNR and brings them back into Ukraine under reasonable terms (amnesty, decentralization, permitted local use of the Russian language as an official second state language) through the Minsk Protocol and former German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier's formula (road map),
See Minsk Protocol at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol and
What is the Steinmeier Formula? at https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/steinmeier-formula/2254244
2. Becomes independent of U.S. political, economic and military control;
3. Retains political, economic, and military independence from Russia;
4. Pledges a neutral non-aligned political & military status (like Sweden or Switzerland), abandons any aspirations to join NATO or permit the presence of foreign military bases and forces on its soil;
5. Abandons all anti-Russian (linguistic, ethnic, and religious) laws and government policies, prohibits all such discrimination & persecution
- adopts Russian as a second official state language equal to Ukrainian
- recognizes ethnic Russians as a native ethnicity of Ukraine
- stops illegal seizures of Russian-Orthodox churches in Ukraine and persecution of their priests and parishioners;
6. Abandons all glorification of WWII Nazi collaborators and war criminals and adopts anti-Nazi laws similar to those in Germany and Russia;
7. Reaches a political settlement with Russian over Crimea by recognizing the Crimean people's inalienable, democratic and basic human right to self-determination (to be an independent country or to be a part of Russia like before 1954) through a democratic referendum.
8. Refuses to participate in America's geopolitical battles against Russia and China, including by refusing to participate in any economic and political sanctions not explicitly approved by the United Nations, including its Security Council.
But here's the million-dollar question - in today's political climate, could Ukraine ever adopt the above measures and still have a chance at EU membership?
Regardless, if Ukraine, instead of adopting the above recommendations, continues on its present course by
(a) Remaining under U.S. control and exploitation in US attempts to control Russia,
(b) Seeking NATO membership, dislocation of US/NATO troops, bases and weapons (especially dual purpose "anti-missile systems"),
(c) Maintaining a permanent civil war in Eastern Ukraine or attempt at a military victory with subsequent Russian military intervention,
(d) Keeping and/or expanding anti-Russian policies that violate human rights and U.S. & EU legal standards and norms,
(e) Reserving the right to take Crimea back by force or with the assistance of US/EU sanctions against Russia
then I am afraid that Ukraine will remain under a clear & present danger / threat of Russian military intervention.
Why?
Because Russia will reserve and may exercise its right to interfere militarily in Ukraine based on
- Russia's need for local military security against the perceived threat of NATO encroachment and future placement in Ukraine of weapons systems (missiles, aircraft capable of carrying nuclear payloads, etc.) that could neutralize Russia's nuclear weapons potential and permit (even if just in theory) a nuclear first strike against Russia without the fear of Russia's response and mutually assured destruction
and
- its perceived right to have the equivalent of America's Monroe Doctrine for military, political and economic reasons, especially if American foreign policy (political, economic, and military) refuses to allow Russia to
(a) remain an independent global power which could increase its influence in West Europe (thanks in part to natural gas deliveries through Nord Stream I and II) and
(b) remain China’s junior partner/ally (without any significant US/NATO control or leverage, e.g. through Ukraine), a status which could help make China unbeatable (with Russia as its junior ally), if not victorious, in its contest with the United States for our world's leading economic, military and political superpower.
So what do you think?
Last, please don't forget to share this article for review and civilized discussion!
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[Google Translation]
Peskov advised Ukrainians to set an alarm clock so as not to oversleep the "invasion" -
Peskov advised Ukrainians to set alarms due to reports of "invasion" of Ukraine!
00:08 02/16/2022 (updated: 01:01 02/16/2022)
MOSCOW, February 16 - RIA Novosti. The Kremlin ironically commented on the reports of a number of Western media about the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine in the morning, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov suggested that the Ukrainians set an alarm clock for this.
The British tabloids on the eve appointed the time of the "invasion of Ukraine" - supposedly this will happen at three o'clock Wednesday night local time.
In particular, the Mirror wrote about this with reference to sources in the American intelligence services, who allegedly reported this to the publication's employees in Kiev.
[ See https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-russia-war-invasion-live-26225775 ]
The Sun also listed 3:00 am as "the most likely time," citing US intelligence.
[ See https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17655287/russia-set-invade-ukraine-tomorrow/ ]
“It’s better for them to set alarms for this time and see for themselves,” Peskov told RIA Novosti, answering the question of whether Ukrainians should worry or they can sleep peacefully today.
Earlier, the Politico newspaper, citing informed sources, reported that US President Joe Biden, at a video conference with leaders of Western countries, the European Union and NATO, called the date of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine on February 16.
Peskov, commenting on these claims, said that it is difficult to take such publications seriously, and Russian President Vladimir Putin sometimes jokingly asks to know if the exact time of the start of the war is published anywhere.
https://ria.ru/20220216/budilnik-1773020626.html
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DAWN RAID - Russia set to invade Ukraine at 1AM tomorrow with massive missile blitz and 200,000 troops, US intelligence claims
Nick Parker Jerome Starkey
In Kyiv, Ukraine
10:12, 15 Feb 2022 Updated: 13:45, 15 Feb 2022
RUSSIA is set to invade Ukraine at 1am tomorrow with a massive missile blitz and 200,000 troops, according to US intelligence.
Highly placed sources said preparations to defend the besieged nation would continue - despite reports Putin was withdrawing some troops from the border.
Sources said Russia is set to invade Ukraine tomorrow!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17655287/russia-set-invade-ukraine-tomorrow/
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Ukraine-Russia war fears LIVE: Invasion time 'confirmed' with air strikes expected
Fears of war continue to spiral with the presence of an estimated 130,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine, prompting warnings from the UK and Nato allies to citizens to flee the country
Johnson and Biden: 'Crucial window' for diplomacy with Russia
By Matthew Dresch News Reporter, Ryan Merrifield Reporter
Updated 22:54, 15 Feb 2022
US intelligence agencies believe the Kremlin will order the invasion of Ukraine at 3am local time.
Although some Russian forces were seen withdrawing from the border earlier today tensions remain high.
Russia said the withdrawal followed drills in the area and war in Europe could be imminent.
Last ditch diplomatic efforts continue in a desperate effort to avoid armed conflict.
Senior sources said a Moscow attack would be “almost certainly from multiple points” over Ukraine’s southern, eastern and northern flanks.
The Mirror’s senior American source warned our team in Kyiv with a simple one line message saying: “3am Wednesday.”
Russia has more than 126,000 troops massed near the eastern border of Ukraine.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ukraine-russia-war-invasion-live-26225775
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Russian invasion of Ukraine set for '3am today' with missiles and tank attack
Intelligence sources state Russia's invasion of Ukraine will begin on Wednesday afternoon with Europe on the brink of war despite Vladimir Putin pulling back some of his country's forces.
By Chris Hughes in Ukraine
09:55, 15 Feb 2022
Update d00:01, 16 Feb 2022
Kremlin chiefs will order an attack on Ukraine at 3am local time today, American intelligence agencies believe.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-russian-invasion-ukraine-set-26232612
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[Google Translation]
Military expert named two dates after which it will be possible to evaluate Russia's plans in Ukraine
Dmitry Elovsky, Polina Milushkova
February 14, 2022, 11:30
Over the weekend, February 13 and 14, there were many alarming reports from the line of contact with Ukraine, as well as from the sea, where a record grouping of Russian navy ships is concentrated. What development of events can be expected in the near future and how the escalation is treated in Ukraine was discussed with military observer Oleksandr Golts.
The military observer believes that from all the conflicting information “two intelligible dates can be distinguished - February 20, that is, the date of the end of the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises, and the completion of naval maneuvers in the Black Sea, this is February 19.”
Goltz recalls that at a meeting in Moscow, "Putin promised Macron to withdraw troops from Belarus after the completion of the exercises."
The expert says that only after February 20, one can “with varying degrees of probability assume further developments: either the forces of the fleet and troops will be slowly withdrawn, or they will remain, since it is impossible to keep them in suspense indefinitely.”
Goltz draws attention to the fact that at the moment there are not only talks about the likely beginning of the hot phase of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but also preparatory actions are taking place in this direction.
“Thousands of military personnel, dozens of ships are moving in the Mediterranean Sea, 3 missile cruisers appeared at once in the Mediterranean Sea, which, if the operation starts, should impede the operation of three NATO aircraft carrier groups,” Goltz explains.
He added that "Russia, denying the intention to attack through Belarus, is actively demonstrating its readiness to surround this country with military forces."
The evacuation from Ukraine of citizens of European countries, primarily employees of diplomatic missions, Golts connects with the fact that representatives of the West "consider the threat quite real."
He believes that this seems like a last resort, since "over the past 30 years in Europe, embassies nowhere, no one has ever evacuated."
The military observer thinks that by doing so, “the West wants to emphasize that the situation is absolutely unprecedented, and Russia is helping to create this feeling by concentrating troops on the borders of Ukraine.”
Goltz notes that it is difficult to say how seriously ordinary Ukrainians take the threat of a possible Russian attack. However, it is worth remembering that "Ukraine deployed in parallel the exercises of its armed forces, which is natural in a situation of confrontation between the two forces."
The expert explains that "exercises are an ideal way to mobilize troops for subsequent military operations." Given Russia's marked superiority over Ukraine in terms of aviation and air defense systems, Golts says, with the likely start of large-scale actions, Russia could begin to implement the Syrian scenario.
And this means, according to Goltz, "massive air attacks with the aim of demoralizing the enemy and destroying the main types of weapons."
The only way out that Ukraine can take in such a situation, according to a military observer, is to prepare for resistance, "for guerrilla warfare, which Ukraine is now demonstrating."
[ *This message (material) was created and (or) distributed by a foreign media outlet acting as a foreign agent and (or) a Russian legal entity acting as a foreign agent. ]
https://tvrain.ru/teleshow/utro_na_dozhde/voennyj_ekspert_nazval_dve_daty-547774/
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