Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Can the West afford to ignore Russia's offer to resolve the current Ukrainian conflict through the Minsk-2 Agreements?

"West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside'."

Why?

Because the goal of the U.S. and its allies was regime change -- getting rid of Bashar al-Assad, who was considered an ally of Iran, another U.S. target for regime change in the Middle East.

The U.S. and its allies did not want to risk a negotiated political settlement that could have resulted in a new Syrian government with supporters of Assad or Iran at the helm -- so the U.S. & Co. funded, trained and equipped Syrian opposition rebels with the expectation that they would topple Assad's government -- Syria's lawful government -- fairly quickly.

What do we have now in 2015? 

A country devastated by war, over 200 thousand killed and ten million plus Syrians abroad seeking refuge in other countries.

Plus we have ISIS and other Islamic fundamentalist (extremist) rebels whose international ranks (now trained, experienced and full of blood-lust) constitute a clear and present danger -- including from terrorism -- worldwide and especially to their countries of origin and previous residence.
  
Was it moral, just or legal for the U.S. to try to oust Syria's president Assad? Had Syria declared war on the United States? 

Had Syria been proven guilty in terrorist attacks on Americans?

Could  the fact that Syria's president opposed U.S. foreign policy and refused to obey Washington's orders ever justify military, political and economic interference in another country's internal affairs?

Can it be argued that America's regime change project in Ukraine, which includes

- U.S. support (political, financial and military) of extreme right nationalist Ukrainian political movements (Svoboda party, UNA-UNSO, Right Sector and etc.),

- the Euromaydan protests, including aggravated assault and murder of Ukrainian police officers lawfully assigned to protect government buildings and officials,

- the unlawful ouster of President Yanukovich in February of 2014,  

- the approval and support (political, financial and military) of the so called "Ant-Terrorist Operation" (ATO) in East Ukraine against political movements and civilian populations who refused to recognize the legitimacy of the new pro-American government and voted for governmental autonomy from it in local referendums in May of 2014, a military and police operation that has devastated East Ukraine and includes the commission of numerous and grievous war crimes and crimes against humanity,
  
could produce the same results in Ukraine, the geographic center of Europe, as in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and/or Syria? 

After all, the Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk government does not seem to be interested in resolving this civil conflict (war) through a political compromise by holding direct negotiations with the political leadership of the Donetsk and Lugansk Self-Proclaimed Republics (DNR/LNR).

Instead, the U.S. backed Poroshenko-Yatsenyuk government continues to believe that that DNR/LNR can be subdued eventually with an economic blockade and military action (as long as Russia does not provided direct military assistance to them!).
   
Let's think about it. If Russia is willing to provide direct military assistance to its ally, the Syrian government at a distance of 1200+ KM from Russia's borders (just like the U.S. has provided assistance to its allies across the globe, including Vietnam and etc.), does anyone really think that Russia won't provide direct military assistance to local rebels in DNR/LNR who are fighting a U.S. backed government in Kyiv that presents a clear and present danger (political, economic and military) to Putin's Russia?
  
So can the Ukrainian people and Europeans afford to have the same scenario unfold in East Ukraine and beyond as in the Middle East? After all, Europe is lucky that over a million of Ukrainian refugees have chosen to flee to Russia unlike their middle-eastern counterparts who are now storming European shores and borders while they seek refuge from the flames of war that the U.S. and its European allies have ignited and fed in Syria?
   
Sadly, the Poroshenko-Yastenyuk regime in Ukraine and its supporters in Washington understand that if DNR/LNR are reintegrated into Ukraine with political & economic autonomy and protection from political prosecution, then these regions with a population of over 7 million are likely to topple their governments in the next elections.

Why? Because the resident of DNR/LNR haven't forgotten how the Ukrainian government forces tried to bomb their cities, villages, industry and infrastructure into the stone age and how the Poroshenko-Yastenyuk  government tried to starve them into submission with a complete blockade blockade on the delivery of foodstuffs, medicine, goods, pensions and anything else of material value into their rebellious regions.
  
Once, again, we have a choice in America and Ukraine. We can step on the same rake twice -- by trying to resolve the East Ukrainian conflict with military means and the facing the same consequences as in Syria -- or we can try to resolve it with a negotiated political settlement.

But we must be ready to accept the strong possibility that  such a political settlement includes the risk of having a U.S. supported regime eventually be replaced by an independent Ukrainian government that's likely to select a non-aligned course to maintain the peace and productive economic relations both with the U.S., the EU and Russia.

So what's it gonna be? Another Syria, but in the center of Europe, or a political settlement like in Northern Ireland?
  
*****************

West 'ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria's Assad step aside'.


"Exclusive: Senior negotiator describes rejection of alleged proposal – since which time tens of thousands have been killed and millions displaced.
...
Russia proposed more than three years ago that Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, could step down as part of a peace deal, according to a senior negotiator involved in back-channel discussions at the time.
...
Former Finnish president and Nobel peace prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari said western powers failed to seize on the proposal. Since it was made, in 2012, tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions uprooted, causing the world’s gravest refugee crisis since the second world war.
...  
Ahtisaari won the Nobel prize in 2008 “for his efforts on several continents and over more than three decades, to resolve international conflicts”, including in Namibia, Aceh in Indonesia, Kosovo and Iraq. 
... 
Ahtisaari held talks with envoys from the five permanent members of the UN security council in February 2012. He said that during those discussions, the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, laid out a three-point plan, which included a proposal for Assad to cede power at some point after peace talks had started between the regime and the opposition. 
... 
On 22 February 2012 he was sent to meet the missions of the permanent five nations (the US, Russia, UK, France and China) at UN headquarters in New York by The Elders, a group of former world leaders advocating peace and human rights that has included Nelson Mandela, Jimmy Carter, and former UN secretary general Kofi Annan.
...
But he said that the US, Britain and France were so convinced that the Syrian dictator was about to fall, they ignored the proposal.
... 
“It was an opportunity lost in 2012,” Ahtisaari said in an interview. 
...
“Nothing happened because I think all these, and many others, were convinced that Assad would be thrown out of office in a few weeks so there was no need to do anything.”
...
At the time of Ahtisaari’s visit to New York, the death toll from the Syrian conflict was estimated to be about 7,500. The UN believes that toll passed 220,000 at the beginning of this year, and continues to climb. The chaos has led to the rise of Islamic State. Over 11 million Syrians have been forced out of their homes.
...
“We should have prevented this from happening because this is a self-made disaster, this flow of refugees to our countries in Europe,” Ahtisaari said. “I don’t see any other option but to take good care of these poor people … We are paying the bills we have caused ourselves.”"

Read the rest at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside

No comments:

Post a Comment