The world-wide ramifications of war in Ukraine and what can be done to prevent it.

The world-wide ramifications of war in Ukraine and what can be done to prevent it.

February 20, 2022

   

Greg Krasovsky:

 

After reading some articles this Sunday evening on the current Ukrainian crisis, including on

 

1. Joe Biden’s predictions that Russian will invade Ukraine soon, based on unnamed intelligence sources and data, as well as the alleged numbers of Russian troops involved in military maneuvers/war games near Ukraine’s land and maritime borders with Russia and Belarus.

 

2. American, British, German and other EU-states’ warnings to Russia of certain imposition of the most severe economic sanctions in the event Russian invades Ukraine.

 

3. Donetsk & Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR & LNR, the separatist Pro-Russian regions in Eastern Ukraine who’ve been at war with the Ukrainian government since 2014) and Russian media reports of Ukrainian armed forces pre-offensive build-up

 

4. Recent arrival of up to 9,000 US troops in Eastern Poland near the Ukrainian border.

 

5. Relocation of US embassy and other Pro-US countries from Ukraine’s capital Kyiv (Kiev) to Lviv.

 

6. The Polish government’s recommendation to its citizens in Ukraine to leave regions likely to be occupied by Russia or Pro-Russian Ukrainian forces.

 

7. The DNR/LNR evacuation of all women, children and the elderly to Russia due to increased shelling by Ukrainian forces and likely “invasion” (attempt to retake DNR/LNR by force in the upcoming days/weeks) and the Russian government’s creation of a country-wide relocation program for these Donbas (Donetsk Coal Basin) refugees.

 

I felt that it was important to share my thoughts (without passing any judgment) on what could happen if war starts in Ukraine this month or even year:

 

Regardless of who provokes it (Ukrainians with US/NATO support/orders, or DNR/LNR with Russian support/orders) and the frontlines move west of the current armistice line in Eastern Ukraine's Donbass, then the Western Ukrainian city of L’viv (AKA Lvov, former Polish Lemberg until the Nazi-Soviet partition of Poland in 1939, only 50+ miles away from the current Polish-Ukrainian border), is likely to become the new capital of Pro-American free Ukraine.

 

And L’viv will be protected by Polish and American troops who'll have an immediate mandate to protect the American Embassy that has just been "relocated" (evacuated) to L’viv from Kyiv. 

 

A little later more NATO reinforcements will arrive from nearby countries with very strong anti-Russian sentiments, like Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as British and Canadian troops.

 

The Polish government has just advised its citizens to leave specific Ukrainian regions that it believes will be under Russian occupation ("liberation, comrades!"), so looks like the partition of Ukraine is being drawn up as we speak.

 

Here's the kicker:

 

If and when the Russians invade -- or help support a new "neutral" (i.e. pro-Russian) government in Kiev (just like America helped install a Pro-American Ukrainian government back in 2014) -- you're going to have three huge disasters:

 

1. Huge wave of Ukrainian asylum seekers in the EU, US, Canada and UK.

 

I'm talking about millions of Ukrainians who'll flee Ukraine for a better life under the justification of opposing the new Pro-Russian government and threat of persecution as pro-US/NATO/EU Ukrainian patriots.

 

The 2015 Syrian refugee influx will pale in comparison with this 2022 Ukrainian Tsunami which will wreck labor markets and put a strain on the government budgets of accepting states.

 

Local populations -- especially those affected/displaced/laid-off by cheap Ukrainian refugee labor and the chronically unemployed locals who'll be resentful of the generous government benefits that Ukrainian refugees will receive -- will protest both on the streets and in the voting booth.

 

Many will aim their anger at their domestic governments' support of US/NATO/EU policy toward Ukraine that precipitated the current crisis -- including the 2014 US-led regime change operation in Kiev that installed a Pro-American/NATO/EU government and has refused to comply with the Minsk Agreements (Protocol) and the Steinmeier formula for their implementation. 

   

2. A New Ukrainian "Eastern front" & subsequent armistice line between Pro-NATO Western Ukraine and the new Pro-Russian Central, South and Eastern Ukraine.

 

This will make the 2014-2022 Eastern Ukrainian conflict pale in comparison, as it will suck in NATO troops and provide NATO states with reasons for helping the current (2014-2022) Ukrainian government try to regain territories lost in 2022 (aside from DNR / LNR and Crimea lost in 2014).

 

Lots of military spending, buildup and eventual war with Pro-Russian Ukrainian forces and Russian troops supporting them with all ensuing military and geopolitical ramifications (including risk of unleashing tactical nuclear weapons or nuclear disasters/sabotage/terrorism at Ukrainian nuclear power-plants in former Chernobyl).

 

3. A worldwide-economic recession/depression triggered by

- the Ukrainian military conflict,

- geopolitical moves & consequences among the superpowers and their political, economic and military alliances (US/NATO, EU, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Russia & its CIS (former Soviet Republics) allies, BRICS countries, China, North Korea)

- anti-Russian sanctions, and their impact on oil & gas prices as well as major currencies (Russian ruble, US dollar, EURO, GB Pound Sterling and Chinese Yuan/Renminbi),

- impact of the above on financial markets, especially in light of

-- massive government debt incurred during the COVID-19 epidemic by the U.S. and other countries,

-- high oil, gas & electricity prices,

-- inflation, especially in consumer goods, namely food stuffs.

 

This could make the 2008 and 1998 global recessions look like child play during 

(a) the current COVID-19 pandemic (even if waning), including the increasing number of casualties from COVID-19 complications (vaccines and Long COVID), as well as 

(b) the likelihood of new pandemics in the near future (especially when these future pandemics are being “predicted” by very rich & powerful people who just happen to be big advocates of reducing the world’s human population ASAP – one way or the other?).

 

So, what’s the only way to avoid war in Ukraine and the economic & political tsunami that it will unleash world-wide?

 

For some of my answers & thoughts on this, please take a look at this Ukrainian-Russian-American Observer post (the discussion starts with “So what's the solution? My opinion is that Ukraine can only thrive and develop if it”):

 

       https://ura-observer.blogspot.com/2022/02/russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html

 

As always, please let me know your suggestions & comments and don't forget to share for consideration & discussion!